Golden Globes in a Crystal Ball

Ah, the Globes! I know everyone likes to diss the Golden Globes as meaningless, as starfucking at its worst, as a fake awards show made up of dubious choices by an organization no one seems to know much about (Hollywood Foreign Press Agency...what do they do?). These claims are often warranted, I'll grant you, especially when Alice in Wonderland, The Tourist and Red are nominated for Best Musical/Comedy, in a year that gave us Scott Pilgrim vs. the World and Easy A, both of which made my Top Ten of the Whole Year (I don't segregate).

But who cares? The Globes are great fun, and to be honest, they march to the beat of their own drum more than people give them credit for. Remember when they awarded Atonement for Best Drama in 2007 over the Oscar favorite No Country for Old Men? It was the Globes awarding Avatar last year that cast doubt for The Hurt Locker's chances. They awarded The Aviator! They awarded The Hours! And as my friend Tom pointed out, they nominated four supporting actresses from the great Nashville. The Globes and I are friends.

Let me lay down some predictions for y'all, then.

BEST PICTURE - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Well, when you're nominating movies like Alice in Wonderland and The Tourist against masterpieces like Burlesque and The Kids Are All Right, then throwing in brainless fun like Red for good measure, predicting who will reign victorious can be a trifle...hard. But I usually like the Globes' choices in this category (The Hangover, Vicky Cristina Barcelona), so I'm going to go with The Kids Are All Right.

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA
Four of my Top Ten appear here, and five of my Top 25. Well-played, Globes. The Globes tend to go for love stories here, or for European films, or for both. The King's Speech -- with its central friendship, supportive wife, and Britishness -- should reign supreme here.

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL/COMEDY

Annette Bening, please. The only Oscar contender in a category that includes Anne Hathaway, Emma Stone, Julianne Moore and Angelina Jolie. Oscars for Best Actor are only for Drama films. However, the Globes likes to give love to both Actress frontrunners -- remember Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep, Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard, Sally Hawkins and Kate Winslet (before Hawkins wasn't nominated at Oscar and The Reader took Revolutionary Road's spot)? So, yeah, Bening here...

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
...which means Natalie Portman wins here. And good for her! I feel like the HFPA were the only ones who saw Frankie and Alice, and have probably earned Halle Berry's eternal devotion. Michelle Williams might be a dark horse here, actually. I could see it happening, but I don't think it will. The other two -- Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence -- are the only nominees for their respective films, suggesting that the HFPA just doesn't love their movies enough. Shameful, but true. Rabbit Hole especially grows better and better in my mind with each passing day.
 
BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Previous winner Johnny Depp is up for two films here, neither of which present his best, or even second-best, work. Then we have Paul Giamatti, Jake Gyllenhaal and Kevin Spacey. Hm. Tough choice, really, since previous winners I either loved (Colin Farrell), liked a lot (Robert Downey, Jr.), or admired enough (Johnny Depp). Here, we have performance I hate, performance I was bored by, and three performances I haven't seen. Let me just take a shot in the dark and say Paul Giamatti.


BEST ACTOR - DRAMA

As strong as the performances turned in by Jesse Eisenberg, Ryan Gosling, James Franco and Robert Duvall are, Colin Firth is in it to win it.

BEST DIRECTOR
Oh, David Fincher, obviously. Look, they may love The King's Speech in all other things, but you should probably give the Best Director award to the best director of the year. Even the Globes know that (thus Cameron won). Now, it's admittedly a tough choice since they nominated all the Best Directors -- Fincher, Aronofsky, Russell -- but I have faith in Fincher.

BEST SCREENPLAY
Up in the Air...Slumdog Millionaire...No Country for Old Men...Brokeback Mountain. With the exception of The Queen, the Globe has been awarded to the Oscar frontrunner for Best Adapted Screenplay. Since I've been watching it, I mean. Inception keeps getting nods in this category, but I've no faith in its chances. 127 Hours, ditto. The Kids Are All Right would be a good win, actually, but the other two nominees are who it's really between. The Social Network? The King's Speech? Despite my feeling that they'll really go for The King's Speech, I think Aaron Sorkin's The Social Network wins here. It's the law of the adaptation.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is another category where I believe The King's Speech will topple the presumed frontrunner. I think Bale is a shoo-in for the SAG and Oscar, but Geoffrey Rush's  understated performance as Lionel Logue pulls the heartstrings and tickles the funnybone. Douglas, Garfield and Renner are just glad to be here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Everyone would love to see Jacki Weaver take it, I know, but I just don't think it's going to happen. Mila Kunis is that odd nominee that will show up everywhere but not actually win anything. It's between the two girls from The Fighter and The King's Speech's Helena Bonham-Carter. Though they'll love The King's Speech and Bonham-Carter, her role is not enough to warrant an award. It's between Adams and Leo, either of whom could win...but I'm going with frontrunner and Critics' Choice Award Winner Melissa Leo.

The rest are just guesses and no-brainers. Determine amongst yourselves which are which.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me", Burlesque
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 3
BEST FOREIGN FILM: Biutiful
BEST COMEDY SERIES: "Glee"
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES: Toni Collette, "The United States of Tara"
BEST DRAMA SERIES: "Boardwalk Empire"
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES: Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
BEST MINISERIES/MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE: "Carlos"
BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES/MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE: Edgar Ramirez, "Carlos"
BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES/MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE: Claire Danes, "Temple Grandin"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR ON TV: Chris Colfer, "Glee"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS ON TV: Jane Lynch, "Glee"