Final Predictions, Sad News

Friends, I have a job! Yes, having dinked around since graduation, I am officially employed at the local arthouse theater, my favorite in the area. I will soon be ripping ticket stubs and providing popcorn for fans of Oscar flicks, foreign cinema, and documentaries. It's the place where I first saw Capote, Good Night and Good Luck, The King's Speech, Biutiful, and many things in between. The flip side? I'm working until 11:00 Sunday night, thirty minutes from home, which means I will be missing the Oscars....for the first time since 1997.

Fortunately, I'm going to record them, so I will still get to experience the shock and surprise of the show, albeit late...and I'll get to FF through commercials. Alas, I will have to by-pass Twitter coverage and my own live stream of the show, but it's worth it. I wouldn't be this involved in the Oscars were it not for this theater. I owe them big time.

This also means you'll know how I did on my predictions looong before I do. And what a great segue -- for here they are:

By the way: great Oscar moment

BEST PICTURE
Will the war between The King's Speech and The Social Network cause a split and allow a third film to rise? No. This might be one of those split years, or all of this lead-up could be meaningless. Who's to say? Smart money is on The King's Speech, of course, since it cleaned up at BAFTA, PGA, SAG and DGA. Myself, I think it sounds weird to hear that title coming after "Best Picture", even though I think it's a worthy contender...then again, it's just as weird to hear The Social Network in that role. Hm...
WILL WIN: The King's Speech
SHOULD WIN: Black Swan
WHAT'S MISSING: I Am Love (instead of True Grit)

BEST DIRECTOR
Again, it's a battle between Tom Hooper, who actually seems to want it, and David Fincher, who apparently could care less. Maybe the Academy will give it to Fincher's superior work, since people who love him, really love him. Yet I can't help but think that I may be disappointed...though certainly Hooper's unconventional direction is a fine choice for the category.
WILL WIN: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
SHOULD WIN: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
WHO'S MISSING: Luca Guadagnino, I Am Love (instead of the Coens)

BEST ACTRESS
Portman's been cleaning up, but haven't we seen this before? A chance to award a respected veteran (Bening/Arkin) over the frontrunner with a January comedy (Portman/Murphy)? Hm... The difference, though, is that Norbit was reviled, whereas No Strings Attached is considered quite harmless. Then again, The Bening... There's nothing but opportunities for surprise this year (except for actor), and this would be the category for it.
WILL WIN: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
WHO'S MISSING: Kim Hye-ja, Mother (instead of Jennifer Lawrence)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Despite Leo's three wins in this category at the Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and SAGs, this category isn't locked down yet. Or, at least, that's what some people are saying. Perhaps Leo's "Consider" ads did leave a bad taste in people's mouths, but I feel like there's nowhere else to go. The anti-Leos will, I suspect, split each other, leaving us with...Leo.
WILL WIN: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
SHOULD WIN: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
WHO'S MISSING: Sissy Spacek, Get Low (instead of Hailee Steinfeld)

BEST ACTOR
No contest.

I'd like to thank the Academy...

WILL WIN: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
SHOULD WIN: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
WHO'S MISSING: Robert Duvall, Get Low

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I want to say this is Christiane Bale's. I probably will say it's Christian Bale's. But I can easily see Geoffrey Rush sneaking in at the last moment for a grand triumph. I almost want to predict that, but I already predicted a Bening upset, and two upsets seems a little extreme.
WILL WIN: Christian Bale, The Fighter
SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale, The Fighter
WHO'S MISSING: Michael Shannon, The Runaways (instead of Jeremy Renner)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
From the beginning, I've known there was only one film that could win this. Maybe -- MAYBE -- Cholodenko and Blumberg or Nolan could surprise, but the win for The King's Speech in Picture starts here.
WILL WIN: David Seidler, The King's Speech
SHOULD WIN: Scott Silver/Paul Tamasy/Eric Johnson/Keith Dorrington, The Fighter
WHAT'S MISSING: Andres Heinz/Mark Heyman/John McLaughlin, Black Swan (instead of Another Year, but only because I haven't seen it)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
From the beginning, I've known there was only one film that could win this. It probably would've won the WGA even if it wasn't eligible!
WILL WIN: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
SHOULD WIN: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
WHAT'S MISSING: Edgar Wright & Michael Bacall, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (instead of 127 Hours)
 
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
This is tougher. Conventional wisdom would tell you Roger Deakins will get his career award for deserving work in True Grit. ASC would tell you Wally Pfister is getting it for his incredible work for Inception. I tell you it deserves to go to Matthew Libatique for Black Swan. Hell, love for The King's Speech could get Danny Cohen a win! The only thing I'm certain won't win here is Jeff Cronenweth for The Social Network. Maybe it's best to go with conventional wisdom.
WILL WIN: Roger Deakins, True Grit
SHOULD WIN: Matthew Libatique, Black Swan
WHAT'S MISSING: Benoit Debie, The Runaways (instead of The Social Network)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
BEST EDITING: Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall, The Social Network
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Alice in Wonderland
BEST ART DIRECTION:  The King's Speech
BEST MAKEUP: The Wolfman
BEST SOUND MIXING: Inception
BEST SOUND EDITING: Inception
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Inception
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 3
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Inside Job
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: In a Better World
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "If I Rise", 127 Hours
BEST SHORT DOC: "Poster Girl"
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: "The Gruffalo"
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT: "Na Wewe"