I know 1:00AM PST may seem a little late to jump on this bandwagon, but it's fine. You'll be up early to watch the nominations live anyway, so I just became the most relevant Oscarologist.
Without any further ado....
BEST PICTURE
I've never seen a season like this before. Were there only five slots open, I know exactly who I'd pick, but there aren't. Anywhere from five to ten films could be nominated, based on voters' passion -- and if Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close could get in last year, what could stop The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel?
So, let me think of the films that I absolutely could not imagine being left off the role call:
ARGO
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
LES MISERABLES
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
As well as anything I imagine will get in based on passion, visibility, etc.:
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
DJANGO UNCHAINED
MOONRISE KINGDOM
Making nine nominees for Best Picture, at most. By the way, if there were only five nominees, I would expect Life of Pi to miss from those first six.
BEST DIRECTOR
Now what? The DGA nominations have only repeated six times in Oscar History - 1977, 1981, 1998, 2002, 2005 and 2009. You'll notice that half of those instances is within the last ten years. I hope -- I need -- a Tarantino or an Anderson (either, really) to make it in, but I have this awful fear that yesterday's dull line-up is destined to repeat tomorrow morning.
These predictions, and more, after the jump:
These predictions, and more, after the jump:
The alternative is no less dicey a proposition, but it's the one I'm going to predict. The DGA noms won't repeat, and instead, we'll get:
BEN AFFLECK - ARGO
KATHRYN BIGELOW - ZERO DARK THIRTY
ANG LEE - LIFE OF PI
DAVID O. RUSSELL - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
STEVEN SPIELBERG - LINCOLN
Which leaves Tom Hooper out in the cold, which I realize sounds dumb given the affection people have for his film, but it's not like the Academy will come to personally kick my ass if I'm wrong.
THE SCREENPLAYS
Six of my nine Best Pic predix are adaptations. Of that group, I expect Beasts of the Southern Wild to justify its presence in the Best Picture lineup through this category (the only other nomination I expect it will receive), while Les Miserables misses out for its sung "dialogue" and Life of Pi for its strong direction. Which leaves room for a wish of mine that's not that out-of-reach.
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
LINCOLN
THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
As for the Originals, it's always difficult to tell. They always want to throw in something like A Separation or Margin Call just to throw us off balance (and I guess to honor superb writing in under-appreciated films, blah-blah-blah). With that in mind, and also recalling that three of my Best Pic predix are from previous honorees in this category, I give you:
AMOUR
DJANGO UNCHAINED
MIDDLE OF NOWHERE
MOONRISE KINGDOM
ZERO DARK THIRTY
So far, Original Screenplay is my most confident prediction. Let's see how I feel about the others, shall we?
SUPPORTING ACTOR
No categories are more simultaneously locked and up in the air. Despite the multiple possibilities, things seem to have settled on four men and an open slot, one that seems primed for any of the Django boys.
Here's the thing: your "locks" are two men who have won in this category (Arkin, Jones) and two who have won Best Actor (Hoffman, DeNiro), and those Django boys are two previous nominees (DiCaprio, Jackson) and a previous winner (Waltz). Never, not once, has this category missed an opportunity to welcome a never-nominated veteran/newcomer/flash-in-the-pan/whatever, as long as they weren't nominated. I'm not saying that can never change, but I am saying that even the Academy is made up of people with different tastes who don't feel compelled to honor the same guy over and over again.
With that in mind, I look to the alternatives: the other ensemble players of Argo and Lincoln, and the surprisingly strong turns within the ensembles of Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty. Prepare for me to be laughably embarrassed tomorrow morning when one of the following does not make it:
ALAN ARKIN - ARGO
JASON CLARKE - ZERO DARK THIRTY
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - THE MASTER
SAMUEL L. JACKSON - DJANGO UNCHAINED
TOMMY LEE JONES - LINCOLN
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The ladies also have a strange lock-open status. We all know there are three fo' sho' locks, and I don't anything is going to budge them:
SALLY FIELD - LINCOLN
ANNE HATHAWAY - LES MISERABLES
HELEN HUNT - THE SESSIONS
Earlier this year, I predicted Samantha Barks to share Les Mis honors with Hathaway, but since literally no one can talk about anyone but Fantine, I think that ship has sailed. And I would hope that they could find it in their hearts to nominate Jennifer Ehle, but I don't see a lot of acting honors for Zero Dark Thirty.
Which leaves one to wonder: Might Kidman be this year's Kunis? Will
Smith make it in, SAG-style? Can Adams bring more support for The Master?
Is there a chance for Dench to be the first actor nominated for a Bond
film? Does Dowd stand a chance against these flashier names?
Answers: I think so, maybe, maybe, no, yes. And of my two maybes, I gotta go with the more divisive one, just because I think it's more plausible. My remaining two nominees:
AMY ADAMS - THE MASTER
ANN DOWD - COMPLIANCE
LEAD ACTOR
If you've been following the nominations from various guilds and whatnot, you'll have learned that there are five slots for six men, and that has remained virtually unchanged since Flight opened. If you've been reading me for a while, you'll know that in April I predicted four of those six to make it to the Big Show. And I'm not going to change that opinion now:
BRADLEY COOPER - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS - LINCOLN
JOHN HAWKES - THE SESSIONS
HUGH JACKMAN - LES MISERABLES
Back then, I predicted Hoffman for The Master, before I learned that Phoenix was the lead. So do I keep that fifth slot for whoever stars in The Master? Or do I recognize the love people have for Denzel? Personally, this is like a reverse Sophie's Choice, choosing between my least favorite options. But I shall err on the side of Stronger Performance and Star Power.
DENZEL WASHINGTON - FLIGHT
But if Phoenix makes it in and Cooper misses, just know that I will be sulking all day tomorrow.
ACTRESS
Finally (for discussion, anyway), we come to the troublesome Actress race. Troublesome because the two frontrunners are bizarre: one a subtle portrayal of a one-track woman; the other a perfectly serviceable supporting performance.
JESSICA CHASTAIN - ZERO DARK THIRTY
JENNIFER LAWRENCE - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Troublesome because the remaining three slots could be filled by any of the six actresses I'm about to name: Cotillard, Knightley, Mirren, Riva, Watts, Weisz. Cotillard's role is more prickly than usual for this category; Knightley's film has gotten no love except from me; Mirren might as well be sleepwalking; Riva is old and foreign, and we already have young, sexy Cotillard speaking French; Weisz is more the outlying, artsier pick. Watts, meanwhile, has a strong fanbase, for both herself and the film. Add her in:
NAOMI WATTS - THE IMPOSSIBLE
So that leaves two slots. Count Knightley out, unfortunately. Logically, we should say the same of Mirren, but she was nominated for The Last Station. Helen Hunt would be a lock if she wasn't already locked for Supporting, but this is where she belongs, dammit. Because one just has to grit one's teeth and come to a decision, here we go:
MARION COTILLARD - RUST AND BONE
EMMANUELLE RIVA - AMOUR
Except for Watts in place of Mirren, this is BAFTA. Except for Riva in place of Mirren, this is SAG. It's a perfect compromise.
Miscellany:
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Brave - Touch the Sky
Life of Pi - Pi's Lullaby
Les Miserables - Suddenly
Ted - Everybody Needs a Best Friend
BEST ART DIRECTION
Argo
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Snow White and the Huntsman
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