The 93rd Oscar Nominations: Surprises, Etc.

Forty-one feature films nominated this morning, led by Mank with ten. By my count, there were five big surprises this Oscar Nomination morn. In order of shock:

1) 

Lakeith Stanfield nominated in Best Supporting Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah. A shocker for two reasons: first of all, he was not tipped in any previous awards ceremony before this; but more importantly, he wasn't even campaigned as Supporting by Warner Bros.! So as not to compete, Stanfield was pushed for Lead and Daniel Kaluuya for Supporting. Both made it in Supporting, which makes me wonder how close Kaluuya came to pulling a Kate Winslet in The Reader-style category switcheroo. It's worth mentioning: I predicted Stanfield's nomination here back in April.

2) 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom under-performs. Nominated by almost every guild, leading the conversation in Best Actor, and my second favorite movie of 2020, Ma Rainey managed only five nominations - Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Best Actress (Viola Davis), Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling - getting shut out of Best Adapted Screenplay (madness) and Best Picture (lunacy). 

3) 

Da 5 Bloods gets a nomination! I had feared that it would be completely shut out (certainly its absence in Best Editing and Best Actor makes one wonder how voters define "Best"), but fortunately, this top-tier Spike Lee joint will not go down in history as a This Had Oscar Buzz entrant. Lee's longtime collaborator Terence Blanchard was nominated for Best Score.

4) 

Only eight nominees in Best Picture. Many of my friends were predicting as many as ten, I predicted nine. The aforementioned absence of Ma Rainey's Black Bottom broke my heart; the absence of One Night in Miami..., which for a time looked to be a big contender for Best Director as well, was also pretty surprising. Nothing shocking included.

5)

Another Round's Thomas Vinterberg nominated for Best Director over Aaron Sorkin. An alternate choice for many predictors (my Oscar trivia teammate recently made this very prediction on Facebook, you'll have to take my word for it). Still, I'm surprised that he unseated Sorkin instead of David Fincher or Emerald Fennell. 

The final roster of nominees after the jump:

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Like it says on the box - or, in this case, the headline - these are what I think may be announced Monday morning when Nick and Priyanka Chopra Jonas present the nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards. A lot of guesswork this year, especially when it comes to the acting and writing categories, but I'd rather a hard-to-predict year than a trudge towards the inevitable, ya know?

My predictions, after the jump...