When Sean Penn won Best Actor in 2003, it was the first and, to my memory, the only time I’d ever seen the host himself apologize to one of the other nominees. That’s because while Penn’s victory wasn’t a total shock - there was a late surge of support for him and the film - conventional wisdom at the time had Bill Murray as the inevitable winner. Both Penn and Murray won Golden Globes, but Murray had also been crowned by the New York critics, the LA critics, the Indie Spirits, and BAFTA, an actual industry group! The only other nominee to be honored by people who’d actually vote for the Oscars was Johnny Depp at the SAG Awards, and many felt the nomination was the win for him. Murray was a beloved comedy icon who many agreed probably just missed on a Supporting Actor nomination for Rushmore, it seemed inevitable that the Academy would reward him and his career. For once, the inevitable did not occur:
Here are the performances, ranked from 5th to 1st: